PHIL TOWN

Holding Stock Over Earnings Report Dates: Yes or No?

A few days ago Ray left this comment on the Phil Town blog:

I am having trouble pinning down the earnings dates (10-Q and 10-K) for companies. Some allow for automatic email alerts for sec filings, others do not. Do they tend to follow previous years dates? How far in advance will companies announce exact earning dates? Or will they not do this in fear of a sell off. Some older posts, on this site, have suggested NOT holding over an earnings announcement. I tend to agree. I'm just having trouble pinning down that day. Will the company web site give an advance warning of a quarterly/annual report date? Any light you can shed on this would be appreciated.

Here's my response:

Market Watch has a list of upcoming earnings report dates for the next week or two.  But if you are about to buy stock and want to know when they report, go to their website and look under the heading investor relations'.  You'll see previous reports and dates for future reports. 

A lot of good investors do not hold the stock over earnings report dates.  Usually the street has some sense of what's coming, not always, but usually.  In that case, you'll see a spurt of Big Guy buying before the release and you'll get green arrows.  Or the opposite and you'll get red.  In those cases, you just get out regardless, right? 

In case the arrows are neutral, I'd make a decision to get out before release dates in the case that I'm not certain about the value of the business, the future of the business long term, the price to value relationship...  In other words, if I'm trading it rather than consuming it.

Now Go Play,

Phil Town

Get a Long Term Picture

Yesterday I received a note from long-time Rule #1 Blog reader, Jon:

Phil Town,

Hopefully you can do updates like your "weeks and months to come" post to continue to talk about your experience with previous bear markets... Maybe you can talk more about accumulation strategies with the current investment market and if you see more likely opportunities for this in future months based on how bear markets work?

thanks,

jon

Will do.  This is a great market for buying companies.  Private ones.  Public ones.  We're funding new ones.  It's all the same thing.  When you guys get that there is no difference between buying a public company and a private company or a Micky D franchise or starting your own business, you will have the beginnings of being great investors. 

There is no one out there who thinks that this can't go a whole lot lower, and as long as they think that, it can.  The mainstream brokers are in shock.  Many will lose their jobs because people simply don't believe them any more. 

Back in the early 1980's when I started, the guy on the desk answering calls to pick up leads could sit all week and not get a single phone call from anyone who wanted to know about buying stocks.  That's where we are going, my friends. 

We're not there yet.  There are still lots and lots of people who think stock investing is about buying at all times and holding forever and they haven't given up yet.  But they are starting to.  If this market stays down like this for another year or two you are going to see the baby boomers decide that they need their money someplace else.  And then watch out below.

That said, I hope you've been looking for bargains.  The trick is to take a long term view of growth.  Don't use recession numbers to put a value on an investment, but don't use crazy numbers either.  Get a long term picture.  What would you be willing to bet your financial future on?  Keep it that conservative.  And let me see what you're coming up with.

Now go play

Phil Town