I just sent this email off to Manny Schiffres, the Editor of the
Kiplinger Letter and my debate opponent on Closing Bell with Maria
Bartiromo (and I copied Maria). Manny rather sarcastically asked me to
call him when we reached "the bottom". Well, I called him, so to speak.
We're close enough to a bottom to be buyers. But selectively and only in businesses we want to buy as they continue to go down.
Keep in mind that we could easily see the Dow at 5000 or 2500, although I think they are going to swap out some of the Dow stocks to shore it up a bit and keep that from happening. In any case, we buy in now and hope it goes down so we can buy in cheaper down the road.
Here's the email:
Hi Manny,
I hope you remember our guest appearance on Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo on August 17, 2007. I think Maria called it, "a lively discussion". More to the point, we argued. The Dow was at 13,079. You made the point that buy and hold was the way to go. I argued to get out and suggested rather strongly that viewers should not take your advice. I think I said something like, "This is a great opportunity for us to get in cash, wait patiently, see where the bottom is. When [the Big Guys] start to buy back in, load up the truck." And you said (and I quote), "Maria, I want Phil to call me when he identifies the bottom."
Well, I advised my readers to bail back then and I went to cash. And that's where we've been sitting, waiting patiently, as I suggested on the show. Now it's time to go back to work. So here's the call, Manny. It's time to start loading the truck.
Do it very selectively, of course. I'm buying businesses I want to hold for ten years or more and which have prices that are low now, but which I hope will continue to decline with a continued general market melt-down. As much as I want to wait for a 2500 Dow, I try to remember that pigs get fat while hogs get butchered.
That's how we do it in Jackson Hole, my friend.
Hope you're doing well. See you back on the show sometime.
Sincerely,
